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Find out what is actually market on a deal term
Turns "that is market" into a checkable claim: the comparison set defined before any number, the sources that genuinely establish it, your own precedent files ranked first, and no invented statistics.
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*(After I answered: leverage is roughly even and there is a competing bidder, I would go to 7.5% but not below, and we signed a deal at 6% eight months ago on a smaller target.)*
The comparison set. Private-target acquisitions in the $40M to $100M range, US middle market, buyer side, no representation and warranty insurance in the structure, last two years, negotiated paper rather than a seller's auction form, with the target in a services or logistics business rather than software. The variable that moves the answer most by a wide margin is the absence of insurance. Cap and survival terms on insured deals sit in an entirely different place, and a claim about market that does not separate insured from uninsured deals is comparing two different populations. If their associate is reading from an insured-deal dataset, the entire disagreement is an artifact.
Source order
| Source category | Can establish | Cannot establish | How to get it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Your own closed files matching the set | What your firm has actually signed, with documents you can put in front of someone | What the wider market does, if your practice skews to one industry or one side | Pull them. This is the only category you can verify today |
| A published deal-points study for this market segment | A distribution across a defined sample | Anything about deals outside its sample, which is usually most of them | [UNVERIFIED - confirm a study covering the US middle market and uninsured private targets exists, check the edition, and check the sample size in your size band before quoting a word of it] |
| A deal database of public filings | Terms in deals that got filed, which are systematically larger and more often public-target | Anything about a $60M private logistics deal | Subscription required; you told me you do not have one |
| Counsel on both sides of similar deals in the last year | A working sense of the current range | Anything you could put in writing | A call to two partners in your own group |
| Their claim | Nothing until they source it | Everything | See below |
Pull from your own files. Every closed acquisition of a private target between roughly $30M and $120M in the last twenty-four months, buyer side, without insurance. For each, record six fields: purchase price, cap as a percentage of price, survival period for general reps, whether fundamental reps were carved out, the basket type and amount, and whether the deal was competitive. Eight to twelve qualifying files makes a sample you can describe on a call. Below six, do not characterize it as a pattern; describe the individual deals instead, which is actually more persuasive because it is checkable. Pull the eight-month-old 6% deal first, because it is the one they can find.
Interrogating their claim. Their associate said a 10% cap is "well above market for a deal this size." Two questions:
1. "Above market against which set: are you including deals with rep and warranty insurance?" If they are, the claim is about a different population and the conversation ends there.
2. "What are you looking at?" A source that gets named is a source you can check and possibly use. A claim that cannot be named was a negotiating position, and the right response is not to argue the number but to move to the question of exposure on this target.
If the claim survives both questions with a named, segment-matched source, treat it as real evidence and negotiate on exposure rather than on market. If it dissolves, do not say so. Just stop discussing market and start discussing the three diligence findings that justify the cap you want.
Market as against what matters. A 10% cap could be squarely market here and still be the wrong ask, if the diligence on this target surfaced nothing that would ever produce a claim above the basket; in that case you are spending leverage on a number you will never use, and the survival period is worth more than the cap. Conversely, a 10% cap could be well above market and entirely justified if the logistics business carries a specific identified exposure, in which case the right move is not a bigger general cap at all but a special indemnity carved out of the cap for that exposure. That is the version they are most likely to accept, because it does not move the headline number they are measured on.
The ask. Hold 10% with 15-month survival on general reps, and put the identified exposure into a special indemnity outside the cap. Trade the general cap down to 7.5% only if the special indemnity survives.
Sponsor sentence. "We are asking for a 10% holdback because the diligence found a specific exposure we can name, and we would rather carve that one item out separately than argue about the general number."
Assumptions. That there is no rep and warranty insurance on either side's model of this deal [verify: it changes the comparison set and therefore everything above]. That "deal this size" in their claim means the purchase price rather than the target's revenue [verify: worth one question on the next call].
What your answers changed. That you signed at 6% eight months ago is why the pull instruction puts that file first and why the entire recommendation routes around the general cap rather than defending the number. Without it the answer is a straightforward "hold 10% and make them source their claim," and you get quoted your own deal on the next call. That there is a competing bidder and leverage is roughly even is what makes the market argument worth having at all; with no leverage the honest advice is to take 5% and spend the effort on the special indemnity. Your answer that you would go to 7.5% set the floor in the ask and otherwise changed nothing, so it was the cheapest of the three questions.
Why this prompt is built the way it is
## Framework
1. **Define the comparison set first:** deal size, industry, geography, which side, the year, and negotiated paper as against a form. Market means nothing without it.
2. **Name the source categories that actually establish market,** and produce no percentage, median, or "most deals" claim from anywhere but the user's own inputs.
3. **Rank your own precedent files first.** Checkable beats national.
4. **Interrogate the counterparty's claim:** who said it, market for which set, and what one question does to it.
5. **Separate what is market from what matters.** Off-market and harmless is common; market and wrong for this deal is more common.
6. **Produce the ask** in one line a business sponsor can repeat.